Diesel Prices Expected to Stay Above $5 Through Third Quarter of 2026

U.S. diesel costs are expected to remain above $5 per gallon through the third quarter, keeping fuel management at the center of trucking profitability. Land Line Media reported August 14 that recent national averages ranged from $5.257 in the Energy Information Administration's weekly report to $5.279 from AAA and $5.404 from ProMiles. Different collection methods and reporting dates can produce slightly different readings.

EIA's August Short-Term Energy Outlook projects an average diesel price of $5.37 per gallon in the second quarter and $5.18 in the third quarter. The agency expects the price to ease to about $4.86 by year-end, with an average below $4 projected by the third quarter of 2027. Those figures are forecasts, not guaranteed retail prices. Regional taxes, refinery conditions, transportation costs and local supply can create substantial differences from the national average.

The outlook reflects declining global oil inventories and constraints through the Strait of Hormuz, even as crude prices have softened. EIA expects inventories to rebuild and production to increase next year, which supports its longer-term decline. For carriers, however, today's problem is cash flow: a fuel surcharge may lag the pump, and a route with weak backhaul pricing can lose margin quickly when every gallon costs more.

Owner-operators should calculate fuel cost by lane using actual miles per gallon, idle time, tolls and planned purchases. Compare surcharge formulas with the index and adjustment date in each contract. Fleets can reduce exposure through controlled fueling networks, verified discounts, tire-pressure discipline, speed management and routing that avoids unnecessary deadhead miles. Drivers should never trade safe speeds or required rest for fuel savings. The forecast points toward gradual relief, but fall budgets should still assume elevated diesel expense and preserve working capital for volatility.