Dry Van Rejections Hold Near 11% as Reefer Capacity Tightens

Dry van tender rejection rates remain near 11% even after drifting lower, a level FreightWaves says still points to a tight truckload market. Capacity has not expanded meaningfully despite more than a year of elevated rejections. Firm spot pricing and operating costs that have risen faster than carrier revenue are limiting the cash available for new owner-operators and equipment, leaving the market sensitive to additional demand.

Regional conditions are sharply divided. FreightWaves reported that 67% of measured Los Angeles lanes were moving higher and spot rates there were about 15% above contract rates. Savannah showed the opposite pattern: rejection rates had fallen to roughly 6%, spot rates were below contract levels and a meaningful share of lanes was declining. That difference shows why a national average cannot replace lane-level pricing and tender data.

Refrigerated freight is tighter than dry van. Reefer rejection rates moved above their Labor Day and July Fourth peaks, while spot rates remained elevated. Harvest activity continued to pressure Idaho and Oregon capacity, and the Midwest also stayed constrained. Loaded domestic intermodal volumes recently declined after a major transcontinental lane interruption, with a parallel international decline suggesting a broader demand event rather than a simple modal shift.

Carriers should compare rejection trends with their own empty miles, dwell time, fuel cost and reload prospects before chasing a higher headline rate. Shippers can reduce exposure by confirming appointments, testing backup carriers and separating Los Angeles, Savannah and harvest-region assumptions in routing guides. Drivers may see stronger offers on selected reefer and West Coast lanes, but the data does not guarantee profitable freight everywhere. The market remains tight, uneven and vulnerable to peak-season disruption.