EIA Raises 2027 Diesel Price Forecast to $5.03 a Gallon

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for the 2027 national average retail diesel price to $5.03 per gallon, up from $4.49 in its October outlook. Transport Topics reported the revision November 10. EIA's official Short-Term Energy Outlook confirms the new figure, a 12% increase from the previous forecast, while still projecting a decline from the 2026 average of $5.25.

EIA also increased its 2027 regular gasoline forecast to $3.73 per gallon from $3.56. The agency expects tight global supplies of refined fuels to persist through the end of 2027, supporting wider refining margins and elevated U.S. refinery operations. It projects Brent crude to average about $86 per barrel in 2027, with prices gradually easing as global inventories rebuild.

The outlook was completed November 5 and does not incorporate market events after that date. It is a national annual forecast, not a guaranteed pump price for a particular state, week or fleet. EIA's separate weekly data placed the November 9 U.S. on-highway diesel average at $6.127 per gallon, down 16.5 cents from the prior week but $2.29 above the same week in 2025.

Carriers should stress-test 2027 bids instead of budgeting from a single point estimate. Model fuel at several price levels, confirm surcharge formulas and measure empty miles, idle time and route efficiency. Owner-operators should compare gross rate and fuel surcharge with actual gallons consumed on each lane. Preventive maintenance, tire inflation and disciplined speed can reduce exposure, but they do not eliminate fuel-price risk. The higher forecast strengthens the case for written surcharge terms and frequent lane-profitability reviews before committing capacity.