Intermodal Contract Rates Rise 12% as Fuel Drives Most of the Increase

Intermodal contract rates including fuel have accelerated in the fourth quarter, with transcontinental pricing up more than 12% year over year and shorter Eastern lanes up nearly 9%. FreightWaves reported November 7 that the increases look substantial on invoices, but fuel surcharges explain much of the movement rather than a comparable jump in underlying linehaul prices.

The analysis estimates that fuel accounts for roughly two-thirds of the transcontinental increase and three-quarters of the Eastern increase. With fuel removed, the respective gains are about 5% and 2%. Invoice data also trails the actual freight movement by several weeks, so earlier diesel-price swings can appear in contract-rate indices after the market event that caused them. That lag makes an all-in rate a poor stand-alone measure of current carrier pricing power.

Intermodal still showed an average savings of about 30% compared with truckload on comparable lanes, only slightly below a 33% June peak. FreightWaves also said volumes had largely recovered and were growing at an annualized rate near 7%. Those figures describe broad market indices, not a guaranteed discount or service level for every shipper, origin, destination or commodity.

Shippers preparing 2027 bids should separate base transportation charges from fuel tables before comparing rail and truck options. Carriers and drayage providers should likewise model surcharge timing, empty miles and terminal costs instead of treating the headline increase as pure revenue growth. Recent rail disruptions also show why routing guides need realistic backup capacity. The data suggests intermodal remains cost-competitive, while volatile diesel can make the apparent rate trend much steeper than the underlying freight price change.