LTL Rates Reach Record Q3 High as Fourth-Quarter Costs Climb

Less-than-truckload pricing reached a record in the third quarter and is projected to move higher through year-end. FreightWaves reported October 14 that the LTL rate-per-pound component of the TD Cowen-AFS Freight Index finished the quarter 78.8% above its January 2018 baseline. That was 11.9 percentage points higher than a year earlier and 1.1 points above the second quarter.

The index projects fourth-quarter LTL rates at 82.5% above the 2018 benchmark, which would be 14.7 points higher year over year. Expensive diesel and carrier pricing power are key drivers. Fuel surcharges in the dataset were 79% higher than a year earlier in September, while reported retail diesel prices were 68% higher. Large public carriers have also continued capturing mid-single-digit contract increases.

Shipment economics provide important context. LTL cost per shipment fell 2.8% sequentially in the third quarter but remained 5.3% above last year. Average shipment weight declined 3.4% from the prior quarter, while rate per pound increased 0.6%. Linehaul rates rose 1.2% sequentially even though average length of haul dropped 2.2%. Those figures show that a lower invoice on a lighter shipment does not necessarily mean underlying pricing softened.

Shippers should review freight class, density, accessorials and minimum charges before finalizing 2027 budgets. Consolidating compatible pallets and improving pickup readiness may limit avoidable expense, but the national index will not predict every lane. LTL carriers should separate fuel-driven gains from core pricing and protect terminal service as volumes change. Drivers and dock teams can support margin by reducing rehandling, documenting exceptions and keeping freight moving accurately through the network.