Tight Truck Capacity Could Make This Freight Recovery Last Longer

U.S. trucking rates are rebounding even though freight volumes remain soft, a combination that could extend the current recovery because lost capacity may return slowly. Commercial Carrier Journal reported August 12 that the U.S. Bank Freight Payment Index showed second-quarter shipments falling 1.1% from the first quarter and 2.8% year over year. Shipper spending nevertheless rose 6.4% sequentially and 28.1% from a year earlier.

Pricing data reinforces the supply-side shift. DAT figures cited by CCJ put average second-quarter spot rates at $3.02 per mile, up 18.9% from the previous quarter and 41.1% year over year. Contract rates averaged $3.06 per mile, a 13% sequential gain. Diesel averaged 75 cents per mile, so part of the higher transportation bill reflects fuel rather than an equivalent improvement in carrier margin.

Industry executives described available trucks and qualified drivers as the binding constraint. Market attrition and stronger enforcement against unqualified drivers, fraudulent training operations and noncompliant carriers have reduced supply. That distinction matters: this is not a traditional demand boom, and uneven regional conditions remain. In the Southwest, shipment volume fell 20.2% year over year while shipper spending climbed 39.9%, illustrating how capacity and enforcement can move costs independently of freight volume.

Carriers should resist expanding solely because headline rates are higher. Compare net revenue after fuel, deadhead, insurance and maintenance; confirm that target lanes have repeatable demand; and protect service for existing customers before adding tractors. CDL drivers may see stronger recruiting in constrained markets, but should compare guaranteed work, home time and total compensation rather than assuming every fleet is growing. Shippers can reduce exposure by tendering earlier, improving forecasts and giving carriers more consistent lane information. The recovery may last longer precisely because compliant capacity cannot be rebuilt overnight.