Truckload Breakeven Cost Reaches $3.12 Per Mile as Fleet Expenses Climb

The estimated truckload breakeven price reached $3.12 per mile in the second quarter of 2026, crossing $3 for the first time in the model tracked by JBF Consulting. Commercial Carrier Journal reported that the estimate increased 36 cents, or 13%, from August 2025 as fuel, wages, insurance and equipment costs continued to pressure carriers.

Fuel created the fastest increase. The analysis estimated that the March diesel surge added roughly 30 cents per operating mile and about 35 cents when empty-mile recovery is included. Diesel now represents approximately 80 cents of each mile in the model. Better fuel economy helped, but it did not erase the effect of higher pump prices and other inflationary costs.

The report estimated a $2.66 operating cost for newer equipment, plus another 47 cents per mile when non-revenue movement is included. That distinction is crucial for owner-operators: a loaded rate can appear profitable until deadhead, maintenance reserves, insurance, tolls, detention and unpaid repositioning are applied. National estimates also vary from an individual fleet’s actual tractor, lane and customer mix.

Carriers should calculate their own breakeven with current fuel receipts, fixed monthly expenses, realistic annual miles and both loaded and empty distance. Rate negotiations should begin with that number rather than a market average. Drivers considering lease-purchase or owner-operator work should request a complete settlement example and identify which expenses they will carry. Stronger spot pricing may improve revenue, but it does not guarantee profit when total cost per mile rises just as quickly.