Truckload Rejections Hold Near 13.5% as Capacity Tightens

The truckload market is moving less freight than it did earlier this summer, yet carriers are rejecting a much larger share of contracted loads than comparable demand levels once produced. FreightWaves reported August 29 that SONAR's Accepted Tender Volume Index averaged about 9,800 during the latest week while the Outbound Tender Rejection Index remained near 13.5%.

Accepted volume measures electronically tendered loads after rejected offers are removed, while the rejection index shows how often carriers decline contracted freight. Both measures fell in July as demand weakened, but the still-elevated rejection rate suggests that available truck capacity has also contracted. FreightWaves noted that accepted volume is near 2019 levels; rejection rates stayed below 5% for most of 2019 and below 6% as recently as last fall.

Public carrier results support the capacity argument. Second-quarter disclosures showed little fleet growth, with many truckload operators reporting fewer active units than a year earlier. Class 8 orders have improved from weak 2025 comparisons, but much of that activity appears to replace older equipment instead of expanding fleets. Some shippers also shifted freight to intermodal service when the truckload-to-rail price gap widened.

For carriers, a tighter market can improve negotiating leverage, but 13.5% rejections do not guarantee a broad rate surge. Lane balance, seasonality and local demand still matter. Dispatchers should measure loaded and empty miles, protect service on profitable contract lanes and avoid adding equipment on one data point. Shippers can reduce disruption by tendering earlier, improving appointment reliability and keeping backup carriers qualified. CDL drivers may see firmer utilization in constrained lanes, but employment decisions should still consider pay structure, freight consistency and a carrier's financial health.