Truckload Rejections Reach 12.8% While Holiday Market Stays Flat

Truckload tender rejections are holding near 12.8%, roughly twice the 6% level recorded a year ago, but the market has not developed the sharp preholiday tightening that carriers often expect. FreightWaves reported November 10 that the national rejection index has changed little in recent weeks, slipping about one percentage point over 20 days even as the calendar moves toward Thanksgiving.

Demand is improving without producing a broad capacity squeeze. November's outbound tender volume index is averaging 11,434, up 12% from November 2025 and approximately 3% from October. Refrigerated freight is the tightest major segment: reefer tender rejections reached 21%, compared with 12.6% a year earlier, as food shipments build before Thanksgiving. Dry van rates have been flatter, while flatbed pricing remains supported by industrial and data-center construction activity.

Regional conditions can differ sharply from the national average. The Pacific Northwest is beginning its seasonal shift as apple, potato and Christmas-tree shipments increase. Winter weather could also raise demand for temperature-controlled capacity, including protect-from-freeze service. These figures are market indicators from FreightWaves' SONAR data and do not guarantee a specific rate, volume or equipment shortage on every lane.

Carriers should price loads from lane-level facts rather than assume a 12.8% rejection rate means every market is hot. Compare current offers with fuel, deadhead, detention, equipment needs and the probability of a paying reload. Reefer operators should account for washouts, temperature-control fuel and seasonal dwell. Shippers should confirm holiday appointments early and maintain qualified backup capacity where rejections are elevated. The next two weeks will provide a clearer test of whether stronger volumes translate into sustained pricing power for 2027 contract discussions.