Uber Freight Warns Tight Truck Capacity Could Lift Q4 Rates

Truck capacity may remain tight enough to produce another freight-rate increase during the fourth quarter, according to an Uber Freight market outlook covered by FreightWaves on September 11. The report points to constrained capacity, volatile diesel prices and changing trade policy as the main forces shaping peak-season planning for carriers and shippers.

Uber Freight placed dry van contract linehaul rates at $2.39 per mile in July, up 18% from a year earlier. Its dry van spot linehaul measure also reached $2.39 in July, a 47% year-over-year gain. By August 26, the spot figure had eased to $2.21 but remained 35.6% above the prior year. Primary tender acceptance improved from 76% in July to 78% in August, still well below the 90% to 94% range reported for the previous three years.

The outlook estimates that more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers left the market during the past year and describes a roughly nine-month Class 8 production backlog. Separately, FreightWaves' SONAR Outbound Tender Rejection Index stood at 13.45% on September 10. These are source-reported indicators, not a guarantee that every lane, trailer type or carrier will see the same pricing movement.

Carriers should compare revenue with fuel, deadhead, detention and maintenance costs before treating higher rates as stronger margins. Shippers can reduce disruption by repairing routing guides and securing baseline capacity during September and October, before late-October seasonal pressure develops. Drivers evaluating job offers should ask about available miles, freight mix and equipment support. The broad signal is firmer carrier leverage, but disciplined lane-level planning remains essential.