Old Dominion Tonnage Turns Positive for First Time in More Than Two Years

Old Dominion Freight Line's daily tonnage increased 1.6% year over year in September, its first positive monthly comparison in more than two years. FreightWaves reported October 28 that the less-than-truckload carrier entered October with a similar modest increase. The change is an encouraging market signal, but executives said a broader demand recovery is still needed before results resemble a normal freight upcycle.

Third-quarter tonnage per day was flat from a year earlier. Shipments declined 2%, while average weight per shipment rose 2% and offset the lower count. Revenue reached $1.59 billion, up 13%, although revenue excluding fuel surcharges increased 5%. Diesel prices were 48% higher year over year during the quarter, so fuel-related revenue makes the headline growth rate less representative of underlying freight demand.

Old Dominion reported a 71.5% operating ratio, improving 280 basis points from the prior year, and revenue per shipment excluding fuel increased 7%. The carrier said it currently has more than 35% excess door capacity and is seeing customers discuss multiyear agreements. Management nevertheless linked a stronger recovery to wider demand growth and relief from record energy prices.

Carriers should treat one positive month as a directional indicator rather than proof that every lane has recovered. Compare shipment counts, weight, revenue excluding fuel, cost per shipment and operating ratio over several months. LTL shippers may want to review service reliability and capacity commitments before volume tightens, but contracts should still match realistic forecasts. CDL drivers and job seekers can read the data as evidence of improving activity at one large carrier, not a guarantee of immediate hiring or wage changes across the industry. The practical signal is cautious improvement supported more by pricing discipline and heavier shipments than by a broad surge in load count.